Why UK House Prices Fell in March 2025
Moving House Over Christmas
15 November 2021
The UK housing market has been on a rollercoaster over the past few years — with a pandemic-fueled boom, a series of interest rate hikes, and now, a noticeable slowdown. According to data from Halifax, house prices across the UK fell by 0.5% in March 2025, bringing the average price down to £296,699. While a monthly drop might not seem dramatic on its own, it marks a significant shift in market sentiment and signals that the housing market is entering a new phase.
So, what’s driving this fall in house prices? Let’s unpack the key factors behind the recent dip — from the end of a crucial tax break to economic pressures affecting both buyers and sellers.
1. The End of the Stamp Duty Holiday
Arguably the biggest catalyst for the March dip was the end of the temporary stamp duty holiday. Introduced as a measure to stimulate the housing market, the holiday had been offering buyers a significant financial incentive to complete property purchases before April 1, 2025.
As with previous stamp duty changes, this deadline created a sense of urgency. Buyers rushed to complete transactions before the tax relief ended, inflating demand in January and February. Once the deadline passed, this surge turned into a vacuum. The result? A natural market cooldown — and a dip in house prices.
Many experts had anticipated this effect, as it mirrors what happened after similar tax breaks ended in the past. In essence, the drop is less a sign of fundamental weakness and more of a correction after a period of artificially boosted activity.
2. Rising Interest Rates Are Taking Their Toll
Another major factor shaping the housing market is the Bank of England’s interest rate policy. Over the past two years, the Bank has steadily increased interest rates in response to stubborn inflation. As of early 2025, the base rate stands at 5.25%, its highest level in over a decade.
For homeowners and buyers alike, this translates to significantly higher mortgage repayments. For example, someone borrowing £250,000 over 25 years at 2% interest would pay about £1,060 a month. At 5%, that jumps to roughly £1,460 — a difference of nearly £400 a month.
This sharp rise in borrowing costs has priced many potential buyers out of the market, particularly first-time buyers. At the same time, existing homeowners facing remortgaging are being squeezed financially, reducing their flexibility to move or upsize.
3. The Cost of Living Crisis Is Still Biting
Although inflation has begun to ease slightly, the broader cost of living crisis remains a real pressure point for UK households. Rising prices for food, energy, and essential services mean that disposable income is still tight for many.
In this context, large financial commitments like buying a home feel riskier. For some, the idea of committing to a new mortgage — especially one with higher interest rates — just doesn’t feel feasible right now.
This combination of reduced affordability and economic uncertainty is cooling buyer enthusiasm, which in turn puts downward pressure on prices.
4. A Market Correction After the Pandemic Boom
To fully understand today’s housing market, we have to zoom out a bit. During the COVID-19 pandemic, UK house prices saw an unexpected surge. Low interest rates, demand for more space, and government incentives like the previous stamp duty holiday triggered a buying frenzy that pushed prices to record highs.
Now, some of that momentum is reversing. With the pandemic behind us, the urgency to move has faded. City living has regained appeal, remote work has stabilised, and many buyers are reassessing their priorities.
In simple terms, the market is correcting itself — adjusting after several years of overexuberance. This doesn’t mean prices are set to crash, but rather that we’re entering a more balanced phase where growth is slower and more sustainable.
5. More Sellers, Fewer Buyers
Another trend emerging in early 2025 is an imbalance between supply and demand. In some regions, particularly in southern England, more homeowners are putting properties on the market — possibly in anticipation of further price drops or due to financial pressures.
At the same time, the number of active buyers has declined. This gives buyers more choice and leverage, often allowing them to negotiate lower prices.
Estate agents are reporting longer selling times and an increase in price reductions, both signs that the market is shifting in buyers’ favour — a marked contrast from the ultra-competitive climate of 2021 and 2022.
It may take a little longer for house prices to fall in the North East however, due to the effects of a boom earlier in the year.
6. Annual Growth Still Positive — For Now
Interestingly, while March saw a month-on-month decline, annual house price growth remains positive. Halifax reported a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, suggesting that the market still has some underlying resilience.
This shows that while the market is cooling, it’s not collapsing. Some regions, particularly in the North and Midlands, continue to see steady demand and modest price increases, driven by more affordable housing stock and local economic growth.
What Happens Next?
The direction of the UK housing market in the months ahead will largely depend on several interlinked factors:
- Interest rates: If the Bank of England signals that rate cuts are on the horizon, mortgage rates could fall and revive demand.
- Inflation and wages: A meaningful drop in inflation, combined with rising wages, could restore buyer confidence.
- Government policy: Any new support schemes for first-time buyers or landlords could shift dynamics again.
In short, the UK housing market is likely to remain fluid — with pockets of strength and weakness depending on local supply, demand, and affordability.
Conclusion
March 2025’s fall in house prices is not entirely surprising. It reflects the end of a key tax break, the impact of high borrowing costs, and a general market cooldown after several years of intense growth. While it’s a sign of change, it’s not necessarily cause for alarm.
For buyers, it could be an opportunity to negotiate better deals. For sellers, it may be time to adjust expectations. And for policymakers, it’s a reminder of just how sensitive the housing market is to economic shifts.
As always, whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching the market, staying informed is the best strategy.
